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Dynavax: In Line for a Big Revenue Stream From Covid-19 Vaccine’s Potential Approval

There’s a potential new addition to the lineup of successful Covid-19 vaccines. In fact, Cowen’s Phil Nadeau thinks Clover and Dynavax’ (DVAX) collaborative effort SCB-2019 appears “better tolerated than approved COVID vaccines.”

Nadeau’s exuberant take follows Clover’s last Wednesday’s announcement. The company disclosed that its Covid-19 vaccine SCB-2019 – which makes use of Dynavax’ adjuvant technology – showed excellent results in a Phase 3 study.

The vaccine produced 100% protection against severe disease/hospitalization, 84% against moderate-to-severe disease, and a 79% protection rate against the Delta variant. Overall, the vaccine demonstrated a 67% efficacy rate against all COVID infections of any severity.

While the overall rate might appear low, the already approved vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer went through the testing process before today’s variants of concern had become widespread, and therefore Nadeau believes the results “are all the more meaningful in the context of 100% prevalence of COVID-19 variants in the study population.”

“We think these data are sufficiently strong to support approvals in global markets, and allow Clover to capture share,” the 5-star analyst went on to say.

Not to mention, Dynavax stands to rake in a meaningful revenue stream from SCB-2019’s commercialization. In June, clover said it had reached an advanced purchase agreement with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Through 2022, Clover will supply 414 million doses of SCB-2019 which will go toward the COVAX Facility – the initiative to expand worldwide vaccine access. Moreover, the company estimates it has the ability to manufacture over 1 billion doses a year. Given Clover’s “potential scale and DVAX’s anticipated economics (10-25%),” the revenue windfall from SCB-2019’s commercialization could be a big deal for Dynavax.

In Q4, Clover intends on filing for conditional approval to several global regulatory bodies including China NMPA, EMA and WHO, with a commercial launch possibly coming before the end of 2021, pending conditional approval.

Based on the above, Nadeau stays with the bulls, reiterating an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating along with a $20 price target. (To watch Nadeau’s track record, click here)

Three other analysts have thrown the hat in recently with DVAX reviews, and all are of the same mind – Buy. The stock’s Strong Buy consensus rating is backed by a $20.67 average price target, suggesting room for a 7% uptick over the coming months. (See Dynavax stock analysis on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

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