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India to avoid recession with economy forecast to grow despite Covid crisis

India’s rating agency ICRA on Monday projected a 2% uptick in growth during the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2021, averting a double-dip contraction forecast by the National Statistics Office (NSO) for Q4.

According to the agency’s chief economist Aditi Nayar, GDP growth was up from 0.40% in the December quarter. The agency has also projected gross value-added (GVA) growth at 3% in Q4, up from 1% in Q3.

“We have forecast GDP growth to trail the GVA expansion in Q4, on account of the assessed impact of the back-ended release of subsidies by the government. Given the latter, we believe the trend in the GVA performance may be a more meaningful gauge of the economic recovery in Q4,” Nayar said as quoted by the Press Trust of India.

India’s latest upsurge in Covid-19 cases was projected to hamper the nation’s economic recovery, hitting some of its key sectors.




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