Russia may reach record-high output levels of oil by summer 2022, and may then further raise production to a peak of some 12.2 million barrels per day in 2023, Norway’s Rystad Energy consultancy predicts.
“The [Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies] coalition’s recent agreement to steadily raise oil production is paving the way for Russia to slowly shrug off Covid-19 curtailments. The country is on track to set a new monthly crude and condensate output record of 11.6 million barrels per day already in July 2022,” the firm said on Friday, in a statement. The country’s current monthly production record was set in December 2018 with 11.5 million barrels per day.
“Russia’s oil machine will then accelerate further to a peak of almost 12.2 million barrels per day in mid-2023,” it stated further.
According to Rystad Energy’s estimates, Russia’s annual oil output in 2023 will stand at about 600 million tons. The country’s previous annual record – 568 million tons – was set in 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing oil market crisis.
Analysts have stated that Russia’s oil production growth will be driven by Rosneft and Gazprom Neft’s greenfield projects.
The OPEC+ alliance, comprised of OPEC members, including Russia and 13 non-member states, has lately been gradually increasing global oil supply amid growing demand, initially cut by some 10 million barrels per day in 2020. In July the group agreed to set a goal for output increase at 0.4 million barrels per day each month in an effort to restore oil output to its pre-crisis levels by September 2022.
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